Soccer Dads: The Most Likely White, Male Backers
Posted on | May 17, 2012 | No Comments
Brendan Smialowski/Bloomberg
President Obama faces his single toughest electoral challenge with white men – and his support for gay marriage, while favored by most voters, probably will make it an even tougher slog with this key group in Midwestern swing states.
According to Gallup’s most recent tracking poll, only 40 percent of white voters approve of how the president has done his job. With white men it’s only about one in three. And just 23 percent of men believe the economy is starting to recover.
Older, rural, white men, especially in the South, are probably out of reach for the president because race is likely a factor with them. So he has to focus on better educated, more tolerant, moderately upscale suburban men – Soccer Dads. Both men and women find Obama equally likeable but they dramatically split on whether he shares their values, according to a recent CNN/ORC International poll.
I believe these voters will back a more socially liberal president who had the resolve to hunt down Osama Bin Laden if he can paint a successful economic path for them and close the values gap. They are looking for a president who will stand up for the basic middle class values of home, family, access to education and healthcare, and a solid future for their kids.
So to reach more of these white men, Obama will need to develop a credible plan to restore the middle-class dream and talk less about Warren Buffet and taxing the rich. Polling indicates that men oppose the health care mandate, and believe Mitt Romney would do better at dealing with taxes and managing the government’s spending.
His bailout of GM will definitely help him, as these are among the most job-focused voters. And his 3 a.m. toughness that he has been playing up certainly appeals to them.
But if his percent of support among Soccer Dads is to get into the mid-40s, he is going to have to paint a much more vivid picture of how going “forward” will bring back the American Dream based not on higher spending and higher taxes, but on values like hard work and opportunity for all. And how those values will translate into a new path for success for themselves and the country.
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Mark Penn, was an adviser to President Clinton in the 1996 presidential race and to Hillary Clinton in 2008. He is chief executive of the public relations firm Burson Marsteller and the polling firm Penn, Schoen Berland and the author of “Microtrends.”
“Mr Normal” wins French Presidency but faces big challenges while the Greeks turn to the radical left and extreme right
Posted on | May 9, 2012 | No Comments
Source: crossed-flag-pins.com
François Hollande has been elected as the seventh President of France’s Fifth Republic, winning 51.63% of the vote in the second-round run-off with the incumbent President, Nicolas Sarkozy, to become the first Socialist elected as French head of state since François Mitterrand. Hollande’s victory makes Sarkozy the eleventh eurozone leader to be swept away in the tide of the economic crisis.
Read more here.
In elections on 6 May the people of Greece turned to the radical left and extreme right marking the end of the de facto two-party system that has reigned since 1974. The two traditionally main parties, New Democracy (ND, centre-right) and PASOK (centre-left), saw their share of the vote drop dramatically. The electorate seems to have punished the two parties for their support of tough austerity measures agreed with Greece’s international creditors.
Read more here.
UK after the local elections
Posted on | May 9, 2012 | No Comments
Source: MSN News
On Thursday 3 May local UK elections were held in 128 English councils, all 32 Scottish councils, 21 Welsh councils and in the Greater London Authority. With the exception of London, the fallout from these elections does not bode well for the coalition government of David Cameron’s Conservatives and Nick Clegg’s Liberal Democrats.
This week, the pair is attempting to ‘relaunch’ the coalition with a joint event and the Queen’s Speech, which unveils the government’s legislative programme for the next year. Privately, most of the losses for the Conservatives will be dismissed as inevitable mid-term blues. The overall share of the vote – 38% for Labour and 31% for the Conservatives – was more favourable to the Conservatives than the pre-election opinion polls had suggested and not as crushing as Labour’s mid-term election defeat under Gordon Brown in 2008.
OBAMA V. ROMNEY: WHO WILL WIN THE ECONOMY AND HOW?
Posted on | May 2, 2012 | No Comments
In their latest column for TIME, Mark Penn and Karen Hughes discuss the importance of the economy for the upcoming US Presidential elections.
Penn: It’s déjà vu all over again. Just about every election since 1932 has been about the economy, and the 2012 race is no exception.
According to a recent Gallup poll, when asked to name off the top of their minds the most important problem facing this country today, 72% of Americans named an economic issue.
Right now no one is winning the economy as an issue with critical swing voters. According to a recent New York Times/CBS poll, only 13% of independent voters are very confident in Obama’s ability to make the right decisions about the economy. Only 12% are very confident in Romney.
But Obama can, as he did in 2008, definitely win the economic issue. He did it then because in the face of an economic collapse, Obama presented himself as the steady hand with a plan. People are still looking for that kind of leadership. So far Obama has focused on the Buffett rule, problems with Wall Street and the issue of inequality.
The key to winning the economy is broadening his economic message from income inequality to the larger problems that are engulfing the country and much of the world. He has to focus more on how we can use America’s know-how to succeed in this new global innovation economy; comprehensive tax reform; and a budget deal that will give business the confidence to hire.
Over on the other side, Romney is still in the infancy stage when it comes to an economic message – and the once-moderate Massachusetts governor moved to the right during a primary in which he tried to appease the Republican base. His quick turn to embrace tax cuts and conservative policies like those of the Ryan budget plan has left him off-message and off-center. Ryan is a ticket to electoral oblivion.
Obama’s message may need some broadening but while Romney has experience in business, his shift to the right on the economy has created an opening that Obama can once again fill.
Hughes: Barring some unforeseen national security or foreign policy crisis, Americans’ views on which candidate can best steward the nation’s economy will almost certainly determine the outcome of the election. After years of high unemployment, rising gas prices, and falling home values, Americans want a president who can turn things around. And on this critical issue, President Obama is in danger of being judged the “No, He Can’t” president.
The last effective action on the economy was taken by President George W. Bush during his final months in office, when he made the politically unpopular and, for him, personally unpalatable, decision to shore up financial institutions with tax dollars. Most of the TARP funds have now been repaid – and they prevented a global economic meltdown. That gave President Obama time and space to enact a recovery plan, but his efforts have floundered. His ill-devised stimulus primarily boosted national debt rather than the economy; the president then squandered time and focus by pursuing health care instead of economic cures.
As a result, in the fourth year of the Obama presidency, unemployment and gas prices remain high, home values remain low, and Americans remain deeply worried about the economy. And in politics, as in many matters of reputation, the perception is often more important than the reality. Despite the fact that most economists believe the economy is recovering, polls show most Americans believe it is still in recession. And the daily headlines continue to post caution signs: March job numbers were disappointing, gas prices teeter around $4 per gallon, and the debt crisis in Europe threatens ripple effects at home.
Most recent polls show Obama with a slight lead in a head-to-head race against Romney, but at this early stage, that is less significant than the fact that Americans give Romney the edge on handling the economy. A recent Wall Street Journal/NBC News poll found by a six-point margin, Americans saw Romney rather than Obama as having good ideas for improving the economy. Mitt Romney built his career in the private sector by going into companies that were failing and turning them around. America’s balance sheet is in trouble. In the months ahead, the Romney campaign should position their candidate as America’s economic repairman, ready to answer his country’s call to fix what ails it.
Penn is the worldwide CEO of Burson-Marsteller and Penn Schoen Berland. Hughes is the Global Vice Chair of the public relations firm Burson-Marsteller. The views expressed are solely their own.
Coalition Doublespeak – Can’t we just say what we mean
Posted on | April 25, 2012 | No Comments
www.newsrealblog.com
In my very first blog, I foretold that the pressures would mount on the coalition partners to such an extent that in 2011 it would reach breaking point. I was wrong.
Now, however, we are starting to see the consequences for the ground troops (backbenchers) of attempting to maintain balance between the partners. The biggest consequence of which is the challenge to policy generated under compromise by the coalition’s constituent parts. The challenges come in many different guises, but the thing that unites them is the language used, for and against them, by core supporters of either party.
Take Lords reform, much of the commentary coming from those opposed to reform is that now is not the right time: we are in a period of austerity; the rest of the Government’s programme is much more important; and, the public won’t thank us for focusing on a minor issue that is consuming the Westminster village. What a load of complete claptrap. To my mind, this is not why they are opposed, these individuals have a long held, philosophical and principled opposition to Lords reform. I may personally disagree with their private reasoning, but why are they avoiding the principled argument and falling back on a spurious reason of not the right time?
And this takes us to a fundamental challenge of coalition – what is the vision, what is its’ purpose? Austerity was clear, but what about everything else. The Lib Dems and the Conservatives have agreed a plan – it is called the coalition agreement. And, the Government is committed to pursuing Lords reform because it was in the coalition agreement.
The agreement may (or may not) be a sensible plan, but at the heart of what it is, is a plan without a political philosophical foundation. Government and governing is a very complicated thing. Every day Ministers take hundreds of decisions that impact how Government is run. Boiling that down into a clear vision that we can all grasp is very challenging and we use all political and philosophical shorthand to summarise and interpret how we feel Government is doing. If we support a party and feel they are doing well we are inclined to rationalise their decision making positively. If we oppose a party or feel they are doing badly, we do the opposite.
Here is the crux for the Government; we don’t have a philosophical yard stick for coalition. Neither party can say what it means, because neither party is wholly in Government. This is a Government of compromise, in fact it may well be a government of government, but in judging its heart we feel lost because it lacks a belief system, a tribalism that structures our political allegiances. That is why vision is so critical, more than ever there needs to be a clarity and narrative from this Government about what it is for. And for me that narrative has to be based on centrally controlled, consistent, professional communication. Everyone has to start saying what they mean and meaning what they say.
George
French election insight
Posted on | April 24, 2012 | No Comments
The French election is being closely watched in Brussels and around the world and will have significant impact on European policy, including on the economic crisis. Our team in Paris have provided the following insight.
Nicolas Sarkozy won 27.18% of the vote, finishing second to the Socialist candidate, François Hollande (right), who won 28.63% of the vote in the first round of the presidential election on Sunday.
Mr Hollande’s victory was not unexpected, with pre-election polls suggesting that he would win the run-off against Mr Sarkozy. Instead, the real surprise of the election was the significant vote for the far right candidate, Marine Le Pen, who scored 17.9% – a record for a National Front (FN) candidate.
While Mr Hollande and others on the left consider the results to be a rejection of the policies of Mr Sarkozy, the President’s supporters will look to the possibility of picking up votes from FN supporters. Opinion polls suggest that between 60 and 70 per cent of Mrs Le Pen’s voters will back Mr Sarkozy in the second round.
Meanwhile, Mr Hollande has already secured the support of Jean-Luc Mélenchon, the Left Front (FdG) candidate, and Eva Joly, the Green candidate.
The second round will be held in two weeks’ time, on Sunday 6 May, with a televised debate between Mr Hollande and Mr Sarkozy scheduled for 2 May.
BM Paris
LAUNCH OF G20 INFLUENCERS
Posted on | April 20, 2012 | No Comments
G20 influencers - the most politically influential on Twitter in the G20
This week Burson-Marsteller launched a global study called “G20 Influencers” which names the most influential political voices on Twitter across the G-20. Twitter has evolved into a critical channel for shaping and steering public policy debates in political capitals around the world and this is the first study that tries to understand who are the most important influencers shaping those debates.
It’s an obvious point, but the ability to communicate effectively in politics is the difference between winning and losing. When messages connect with the electorate, you stand the best chance in winning ground on that policy position. Twitter can give that personal connection and we found that those politicians who are perceived to communicate themselves seem to have more influence with their social network. For example, in France, Francois Hollande is known to comment on twitter himself but Nicolas Sarkozy does it thought his campaign team, perhaps explaining a lower score in the data. When Barack Obama does a personal tweet (he signs off with “bo” when he does), it makes headlines and his followers love that – so don’t be surprised if you see more of that in the build up to the US elections. We know that politicians have teams submitting comments on their behalf but Twitter gives an opportunity for people to feel a connection to someone who they might look up to, and the more genuine and personalised this seems from the “influencer” the more likely this is to resonate with their audience.
Of course, Twitter can present risks and we are all familiar with some of the “twitter fails” in recent times. Make a mistake or write something that can be misinterpreted and the politician (or whoever for that matter) often pays a high price for their ill-thought-out tweet. David Cameron evidently sees twitter as a risk and made this point rather succinctly in a radio interview a while ago. Ed Miliband and Tom Watson, both of whom feature on the UK top ten list, have made small errors online and had to deal with the social media backlash but they still see twitter as a valuable communications tool. One question is whether Twitter enables you to speak beyond your political base? In principle, yes it does because news and gossip can spread so quickly. But you could argue that by their very nature, followers for each person will probably have genuine interest in what that person is saying because they like what they have to say in the first place.
Visit G20 Influencers for more information.
James
Food policy in the EU
Posted on | April 5, 2012 | No Comments
Whilst the regulation of the way we produce, market and consume food has always been a subject of a lively debate, over the past few years the EU has increasingly been at the centre of the food policy agenda. Topics such as the science behind health claims, food labelling and food production and disposal are now at the heart of EU thinking and with this in mind Burson-Marsteller has issued an Insight which looks at some of these policies and their potential impact on industry and consumers.
Read Food Policy in the EU here.
Solving the Carbon Capture project….. (collectively)
Posted on | April 5, 2012 | No Comments
Last w
eek an eleven year old Dutch boy stole the limelight from a number of Europe’s top Economists, when he penned his very own solution on how to break up the Eurozone. His proposal came with a clear illustration, showing how Greek citizens could pay off their debt by exchanging their Euros for Drachmes. He even devised a fine system to deter people from holding on to their Euros in the face of a devalued new currency.
Although he didn’t win the overall prize, his contribution received special mention, as it proved that broadening any information pool can yield results from unexpected places. One classic example of an unlikely group of problem solvers came from the gaming community, who last year took three weeks to solve a problem that had baffled scientists for years. Here a website called Foldit, allowed gamers to experiment with complex 3D protein structures, and a breakthrough in the formation of an AIDS vaccine was born. The fundamental difference was the way the problem was framed. They made it into a game.
Just like other animals, we are taught how to play at a young age, and it serves a serious evolutionary purpose. Just as Foldit reframed a difficult scientific challenge as a competitive online game, surely the ability to tap into the collective problem solving skills of thousands of people cannot be simply reserved to solving complex protein structures.
Indeed, this type of information outsourcing has now been transferred to other projects, including the search for inhabitable solar systems and extra-terrestrial life, topographic mapping for oil and gas exploration, and even matching shards of papyrus to translate ancient text. But could such methods be transferred into solving complex political problems?
Last year, the Government’s flagship carbon capture plant at Longannet had to be scrapped, as it was considered “unviable”. The initiative was based on a £1bn competition amongst electricity generating companies, and although these companies were experts in their field, the problem was left unsolved. Last week, the Government announced the revival of the scheme, but as the saying goes “the same road leads to the same path”. However, if the problem could be reframed, then maybe new and more cost efficient ways could be found to solving it, perhaps through the collective skill set of thousands of people. Who knows, maybe there is another Dutch eleven year old out there with a solution to our carbon capture dilemma?
Toby
Can Princess Kate (or should I say Katherine) boost Government popularity?
Posted on | March 30, 2012 | No Comments
Source: mirror.co.uk
When I first started thinking about this blog a couple of weeks ago, it made perfect sense. Given the somewhat tumultuous time the Government have had since then, with pressure over the Budget, the Alcohol Strategy, the new Planning Laws and now ‘petrol and pasty gate’, I’m not sure my central question applies… but here it is anyway… Does a popular and high profile monarchy have a positive impact on the public perception of the Government, of whichever colour, of the day?
At the beginning of March you could hardly turnaround without seeing pictures of smiling members of the Royal family looking back at you from most media channels. With the Queen concentrating on her UK profile in Jubilee year and the newest addition to the royal family, the Duchess of Cambridge, demonstrating she is not only a fashion icon (does it really matter whether her Mum once wore the same dress she did?) but also a stable, if not dynamic, public speaker, focus on the royal family, particularly the female side, has been extensive.
At the beginning of March, when this coverage was at its height, polling suggests that despite concerns around the NHS reforms, the Conservative Party were showing support level or slightly ahead of Labour. Nearly a month on and with the Royals bumped from the headlines by the series of recent controversial Government announcements, all polls in the last few days have shown Labour overtaking the Tories by anything between one and 10 points.
You could certainly also argue that Tony Blair’s Labour Government received a bump in support when, early in his Prime Ministerial career, Mr Blair played a key role in helping the Monarchy to modernise and survive.
Perhaps the Jubilee weekend, and a renewed focus on these currently popular royals cannot come soon enough for the Government?
Ele
About Policy Periscope
A different and entertaining perspective on politics, economics and public policy from the Burson-Marsteller Public Affairs Team
Policy Periscope Team
Team captain George Hutchinson runs B-M's Public Affairs Practice and is a renowned transport geek, who loves cooking up fine cuisine for the team.
Labour activist Andrew Cregan has worked on issues ranging from alcohol and chemicals to banking and human rights, in his spare time provides tours of an 18th century tidal mill.
Netball-playing Ele Collington has a particular focus on healthcare and her guilty pleasures include bad chick lit and anything televisual written by Aaron Sorkin.
Keen golfer Andrew Mackay was a Member of Parliament for nearly thirty years and former senior advisor to David Cameron before joining the B-M team.
William Hague lookalike Hugo Legh is B-M's very own beer and banking expert, whose hobbies include country pursuits and all things political.
James Atkins has worked the political centres of Brussels, Washington and London, and despite being a Brit is also a Belgian rugby international.
Jon Zokay's obsession with online competitiveness and domestic fire safety is matched only by his love of rare trainers and Aston Villa.
Maria Allen is a true blue Tory whose areas of expertise include renewable energy, digital and health & nutrition.
Former Buckingham Palace employee Tamara Jackson mainly works on finance and nutrition. When not organising the office, she indulges George's love of transport.
Toby Denselow is a Labour activist and International Relations enthusiast. Before joining the team, Toby worked in Parliament, the British Museum and more recently at Chatham House.
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This blog does not necessarily reflect the views, opinions, policies or procedures of Burson Marsteller UK or its partners and does not give rise to any contract, undertaking or agreement.